New Jersey's political landscape has undergone a significant transformation, and the 2024 presidential election showcased some of the most dramatic shifts in the nation. These changes have set the stage for an intense gubernatorial race this year and raised intriguing questions about the future of these communities in upcoming elections.
One of the most surprising developments was President Donald Trump's surge in popularity among non-white voters in the New York City metro area. While this shift caught many political analysts off guard, the key question remains: Can Republicans maintain this diverse coalition in the long run?
By analyzing election results at the municipal level in New Jersey and combining them with data from the U.S. Census Bureau, we gain a comprehensive understanding of where Democrats and Republicans have gained the most support in recent elections. Examining the changes since 2012, the most recent presidential election without Trump, reveals a clear picture of evolving party coalitions.
Support for Trump has skyrocketed in densely populated, predominantly non-white, former industrial cities like Paterson, Perth Amboy, and Passaic. The Republican growth that had been slowly building since 2012 experienced a dramatic surge in 2024.
Meanwhile, Democratic candidates have found growing strength in New Jersey's shore towns, affluent suburbs populated by college-educated professionals, and retirement hotspots. These communities will serve as crucial testing grounds to determine if this 12-year political realignment can endure beyond Trump's presidency.
However, the picture is far from simple. Different political figures often attract varying results, as seen in Republican Jack Ciattarelli's previous bid for New Jersey governor in 2021. His coalition looked significantly different from the one that emerged for Trump in 2024.
The biggest question heading into future elections is whether these shifts represent a lasting transformation of state and national politics or are merely a Trump-specific phenomenon. These communities will provide the answer.
The Democratic Surge:
Since 2012:
Mantoloking, a nearly all-residential beach town with a population of 331, located just south of the final stop on NJ Transit's Jersey Shore train line, has seen a notable shift. More than half of its residents work in finance or management, and the population working from home is significantly above the state average (45% compared to 13% statewide). The mean household income is an impressive $484,326, and the average sale price of homes in 2024 was a staggering $4.8 million. While still Republican territory, the town exemplifies the shift among wealthier and more educated voters.
Short Hills:
This location is renowned for its iconic shopping center, The Mall at Short Hills, which opened in 1961 with the tagline "5th Avenue in the Suburbs." The area has lived up to its billing, with a mean household income of $512,637, the second-highest in the state. Among residents aged 25 and older, an impressive 60% hold advanced degrees, the highest percentage for any place of its size in New Jersey. Asian residents make up 38% of the population, with half being Indian American.
Since 2016:
Cape May, located at the southern tip of the Jersey peninsula, is another small beach town. Nearly all shops and dining are in the nearby city of Cape May, but this mostly residential community has a high population of older individuals, with a median age of 70.9. Home values are among the top 10 in South Jersey, at $1.4 million.
Frenchtown:
Situated on the banks of the Delaware River in western New Jersey, Frenchtown is a charming river town and popular day trip destination known for its art galleries and boutiques. The Delaware and Raritan Canal trail, which begins just north of town, is a favorite among pedestrians and cyclists. Frenchtown has a unique concentration of residents involved in "arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations," with one in ten residents working in these fields. The town also boasts a significant population of college-educated white residents, at 41%, above the state average of 27%.
Since 2020:
Avalon, a long-standing affluent shore town, has now become home to the state's fifth-oldest population, with a median age of 74.1. The average sale price of a home in Avalon last year was a remarkable $2.8 million.
Leisuretowne:
This retirement community in South Jersey was actively developed from 1971 to 1986 and has grown to include 2,255 homes. The current median age is 72.5, making it a popular destination for retirees.
The Republican Rise:
Since 2012:
East Newark, a largely industrial neighborhood tucked under the Gov. Alfred E. Driscoll Bridge, has seen a significant shift. Its accessibility to major transportation routes makes it attractive to distribution-based companies, with FedEx and Wakefern Food Corp. operating distribution centers here. Once a primarily Polish and Hungarian neighborhood, it has experienced the third-highest growth in its Latino population over the past two decades, now comprising 71% of the population. The mean household income is $91,696, below the statewide average.
A brand-new waterfront park opened earlier this year in this compact town on the Passaic River, marking a significant step in revitalizing this industrial area. The Clark Thread Company, once the nation's largest thread manufacturer, had a large campus here, and the property is now a key area for redevelopment.
Two-thirds of East Newark's population is Hispanic/Latino, with majorities not holding U.S. citizenship and speaking Spanish at home. It has the largest Peruvian population and the fifth-largest Ecuadorian population by share in the U.S.
Since 2016:
Passaic, home to the state's sixth-largest Latino population, has a Hispanic or Latino origin population of 73%. It also boasts the state's largest Mexican population. With a high immigrant population, Passaic is firmly working-class, with 33% of its adult population not having graduated high school, compared to 9% statewide.
Heading south from downtown Passaic, you'll find a large Orthodox Jewish population. While official numbers about religious adherents aren't available at the municipal level, Passaic is likely one of the top locations for Orthodox Jews in New Jersey. The Brook Haven Mall, billed as the "largest kosher shopping mall in the U.S.," opened in 2021, a testament to the size of the Jewish population in the area.
Elizabeth, New Jersey's fourth-largest city, is a bustling transit hub for the New York metropolitan area. It hosts parts of Newark Liberty International Airport and Port Newark-Elizabeth Marine Terminal, one of the world's busiest container ports. Like East Newark, more than half of Elizabeth's population was not born in the U.S., and nearly two-thirds are Spanish speakers.
Since 2020:
Perth Amboy, once a terra-cotta production capital on the East Coast, has reinvented itself since the Great Depression. The city is now 81% Latino, the third-highest share in the state. Half of its Latino population is of Dominican origin, one of the highest concentrations in the country.
Paterson, New Jersey's third-largest city, is a true melting pot. It has the largest Dominican population outside New York City and Lawrence, Massachusetts, and its Little Lima neighborhood is home to the largest Peruvian population outside of Peru. The city's mayor has declared Paterson the U.S. "capital of Palestine" due to its large Palestinian population, and its broader Muslim population likely accounts for at least a third of the city's makeup. However, Paterson is also a city in transition, with a quarter of its population living in poverty and some of the highest crime rates in the state on a per capita basis.
These shifts in New Jersey's political landscape provide a fascinating glimpse into the future of American politics. As we move forward, these communities will continue to serve as laboratories, testing the durability of these political realignments.
